The Green Party is predicted to win three MP seats in Bristol in the next general election according to a new mega poll.
YouGov’s seat-by-seat poll projects that Labour would hold its three seats in Filton and Bradley Stoke, Bristol North West and Bristol North East. But Labour would lose its two seats in North East Somerset and Hanham and North Somerset to Reform UK.
In Filton and Bradley Stoke, Labour would take 28% of the vote, with Reform in second place taking 24%. And in North East Somerset and Hanham, Reform would win with 31 % of the vote, followed by Labour on 26%.
Pollsters take a very large poll and combine it with other information like census data, to figure out the local support for political parties in every constituency. Despite the Greens doing well locally, if this poll turns out to be accurate, then the Reform leader Nigel Farage would probably become the next prime minister.
Across the country, YouGov predicted that Reform would win 311 seats, which is 15 short of an outright majority. Labour would be left with 144 seats, the Liberal Democrats with 78, the Conservatives with 45, the SNP with 37, the Greens with seven, and Plaid Cymru with six.
A Green Party spokesperson said: “As the new leader of the Green Party Zack Polanski has made clear, the Greens are here to replace Labour.
“Here in Bristol, this poll shows us doing just that. People are crying out for positive change.
“At the next election, Bristol has the opportunity to punish Labour for their failure to tackle the cost of living crisis, for their complicity in the genocide in Gaza, and for their refusal to tax billionaires while cutting benefits for the most vulnerable.
“By electing more Green MPs, Bristol will instead finally have voices in parliament that will truly represent Bristol.”
The poll reflects the torrid time Labour is facing in government as the party’s popularity plummets, as well as the huge rise in support for Reform across the country and the Greens more locally.
“The Green Party currently has four MPs, an increase from just one before 2024. They also largely took control of Bristol City Council last year, with support from the Lib Dems.
By Alex Seabrook, Local Democracy Reporter